The NFL week 4 lines are eliminated and this is the week of the local losers. The reason we take note of this is that one of our time-tested winning formulas concerns betting on local underdogs in the right circumstances. The homeless have covered almost 60 percent in the last 10 years and there are a lot of games this week that fit this scenario. We see several of these games where the local underdog will cover. We’ve given you our first impressions of these games below and later in the week we’ll finalize our picks for our subscribers.

Ravens (-4.5) VS. BROWNS: Cleveland is a local dog that was also a local dog in Week 2 when they covered and won against the Bengals. The Ravens couldn’t take cover after going big on Sunday against Arizona, but their defense is the kind that gives young quarterbacks like Anderson trouble.

Bears (-3) VS. LIONS: Why the Bears are the favorites here are the questions, as this team has some major flaws they must deal with, particularly the ineffectiveness of QB Rex Grossman. The Lions were destroyed last week against Philadelphia and that’s the kind of loss that can undermine a team’s confidence. The domestic underdog scenario is at work here.

JEANS (-11) VS. Rams: There is no other team than the Saints that has been the NFL’s biggest disappointment, as the Rams have not shown life this season and will now lose RB Steven Jackson to this injury. 11 is a lot of points and it’s possible the Cowboys could disappoint here after a big win on the road last Sunday against the Bears.

Packers (-2) VS. VIKINGS: I play suspicious here, as the Vikings should be 7 points behind against the Packers 3-0. This game reminds us of the Browns-Bengals game in week 2. However, the Packers are so hot they should be able to handle them here. Another homey loser here.

Texans (-3) VS. FALCONS: Another more underdog scenario at home here, as the Falcons played well last week under the same setup, but couldn’t take cover against Carolina. The Texans pushed like a home dog last week against the Colts in a wild line, as some covered with Indy when they started at -5.5 (we won on that number picking the Colts), while some pushed at -6, and some even won. with Houston when the line hit -6.5 on Sunday morning.

FOALS (-9.5) VS. Broncos: Good here when the Colts take on the Broncos. Denver was upset by Jacksonville at home last week and things could quickly get worse with another loss. Expect better performance from them in this game. The Colts, on the other hand, have destroyed Denver over the years, which include two playoff victories.

DOLPHINS (-3.5) VS. Raiders: Two bad teams meet in Miami with the dreaded 3.5 margin.

Jets (-3.5) VS. BILLS: The Bills will go with backup QB Trent Edwards as JP Losman will miss a few weeks due to injury. The Jets did well at home by beating Miami last week and things could be turning after a rocky start to the season.

Aguilas (-3) VS. GIANTS: The Giants are the home favorites in primetime against an Eagles team that put up a ridiculous offensive performance last week.

Steelers (-5.5) VS. CARDINALS: The Steelers are 3-0 ATS so far this year and are heading to the desert to face a Cardinals team that will likely go with backup QB Kurt Warner, which could give them a boost.

CHARGERS (-12) VS. Chiefs: The Chargers are playing poorly as they are now 1-2 after a tough loss on the road to Green Bay. The Chiefs came on the board last week against the Vikings, but this team can’t score anything. Both RBs in this (LT and L. Johnson) have struggled.

Seahawks (-1.5) VS. 49ERS: The 49ers are the local underdogs here, as they face a Seahawks team coming off an impressive inning over the Bengals. 49ers running back Frank Gore went berserk in Seattle in both games last year.

Patriots (-7) VS. BENGALS: Another local underdog and this one is in MNF as the Bengals take on the Patriots.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *