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Throughout February we heard endless talk about bubble teams. Who is in? Who is out? Who is on the brink? That, of course, referred to college basketball tournaments. But a new focus on bubble teams is very much on the sports betting scene in March and that is the NBA playoff bubble teams.
This must be taken into account in the analysis of disadvantages at this time of year. Too many teams are just going with the motions, setting up golf dates rather than postseason plans. But those teams that are still alive, whether fighting for playoff position, division titles or in the playoff bubble, may be more motivated.
This is where the overall stats can be less significant. Take the LA Clippers. There is a team that has been terrible on the road all season going 10-24 straight and 12-20 against the spread. Absolute money burners! However, the Clippers are 4-1 ATS in the last five games, despite playing ALL of them on the road. What’s going on? What goes is desperation since they are in the bubble, not to mention the adjustments.
The Clippers just pulled off an impressive 103-89 victory in Chicago as a +8 dog. With the win, the Clippers moved closer to the Golden State Warriors, who still lead by percentage points, for the final spot in the conference postseason. And the Clippers improved to 2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS in a 10-day road trip. “We have to win to try to take care of business in this playoff race,” Corey Maggette said.
It is clear that they are much more motivated when their time is up. What’s also interesting is that Maggette is finally getting more playing time, averaging 38 minutes per game over the last nine contests. He even made 14 of 17 free throws in the win at Chicago! That’s significant because Maggette and Clipper coach Mike Dunleavy have had a good run all season. But now Maggette has more playing time and is making the most of it.
The Clippers only have 15 games left and would be out of the playoffs if the season ended today, but they’re still in contention after beating the Bulls at home. The team is finally getting serious after losing so much time all season. So again, you can’t watch the Clippers general road game, it’s more important to watch the recent road game because of all the things I just mentioned that have changed. Being a successful forecaster means being flexible, adapting to changing situations.
Another adjustment to highlight is that of the Detroit Pistons. Last season, the first under coach Flip Saunders, they were a dynamic offensive team. The players liked it, but after his impressive playoff finish, fans and players alike realized that Larry Brown’s stifling defensive style was more essential to winning than Saunders’ more relaxed and dynamic approach. The Pistons are playing much better defense the last two months. They just held the Suns to 83 points (22 points below their average) while going 13-6 under on total in the last 19 games!
Another team that focuses on defense is Cleveland. The Cavaliers’ focus on defense will not waver as coach Mike Brown maintains the team has found its defensive identity, limiting opponents to 91 points per game during the 9-1 SU/9-0-1 ATS streak. . Cleveland’s season average of holding teams to 93 points ranks fifth in the league. Like bubble teams, the Cavs are motivated to catch up with Detroit for the Eastern Conference lead now that they’ve pulled within 1.5 games of the Pistons. Successful handicapping is about analyzing the sports scene carefully and being flexible enough to adapt to changes. NBA bubble teams are one of many examples this time of year.
