The Pareto probability distribution describes book sales along with a wide variety of observable phenomena. Ask any librarian: a small number of books make up the majority of items in circulation, while the vast majority of volumes remain on the shelves. So while the latest Grisham or King can be seen, you are sure to find a Steven Vincent Benet or Anthony Burgess back in the piles.
Zanybooks.com, my publisher, has 26 titles for sale on Kindle. Of 57 sales in the last nine months, one title accounted for 12, and half of the titles were left without a buyer. (Unfortunately, this last group includes all the novels that we have published with my name as the author. Our best-seller is Side Out for Murder by Paula Morgan).
So far, our sales seem to have taken place completely at random. Our hope is that as the number of buyers increases, the word will spread about our titles and our sales will start to accelerate much like a wildfire, an epidemic, or a welfare case load.
In the 1950s, the United States federal government introduced a program designed to provide financial assistance to families with dependent children. Each of the 50 states established its own independent program to distribute the money. In state after state, the following three phenomena occurred: First, applications for social assistance were submitted at a more or less constant rate. As welfare recipients discussed the program with their friends and neighbors, the number of applications began to increase at an ever-increasing rate. Eventually, recipient organizations emerged. They started active recruitment programs among those eligible for welfare and the number of applications jumped once again. Among epidemiologists, these three stages are known as zero-order, first-order, and second-order contagion.
A similar experience is that of most new authors, whether self-published or in the hands of a major publisher. First, the copies are sold more or less at random. If the book gets into the hands of someone who likes it and talks about what they like, sales will start to accelerate. Unfortunately, only 1 in 500 Amazon readers are likely to write a review, so the selection of the book by a professional critic is highly sought after. With a positive review or two, sales will accelerate even more. The real kick will come only when editors start wondering why they haven’t received a review of X’s book yet or why Oprah is descending from heaven to back it up.
Ow (this is my third “woe” and sorry for that), the newspapers have begun to drastically reduce the number of books they will review. Many have removed their review section entirely. The online reviewer is crucial to the success or failure of a book.
