Why would the odds maker make the adjustments you ask? Simply put, my friend, the reason is that the odds maker already knows what today’s “Joe Public” bettor will do and that is to jump on the trending system or play or, in the case of bad weather, jump on “UNDER” and when. hearing about an injury jumps to the opposing team like there’s no tomorrow.
Personally, when I heard that a team suffered an injury to virtually every player with the exception of the quarterback, I found it very profitable to play the old “wait and see” game, which means that later in the week, once Joe Public has influenced the line that value will likely be found on the side of the team with the injury!
Below, you’ll find a couple of NFL system plays dating back to 1990 that have been quite profitable due to the fact that they’re so uncommon in frequency, and second, because they combine strong handicap theory, which means that there is a rhyme and a reason why they occur. !
1) Play against teams playing their third consecutive game away from home if they lost the first game and won the second. 15-4-1 ETA 79%
What makes this system so useful is the fact that it is based on outright wins and losses in a team’s previous two games, allowing a handicapper to see a predominant pattern, in this pattern the team in question falls in two different handicap situations that cannot be overlooked, as the team in question will not only be in “Road Tired” mode, but will also be in prime spot for a “Disappointment”.
2) Play against a team playing their 3rd straight home game if they are a 3+ point dog and have lost their previous 2 games outright. 10-4 ETA 72%
Like the previous system, it is a very unusual but very effective situation when you consider that six different teams played three consecutive home games during the 2003 season but none ended up qualifying for the system.
The last time this system came into play was at the end of the 2001 season, when the Carolina Panthers hosted the Patriots after back-to-back home losses to St. Louis and Arizona.
Those of us lucky enough to have bet on New England in that contest were rewarded with a 38-6 Patriot victory and coverage!
